5,000 randomly reweighted rescorings of the 103-country index (Dirichlet-drawn around the signed pillar weights, seed 42, fully reproducible) — going beyond the discrete ±5pp sensitivity check in the methodology to show exactly how much each country's rank depends on the precise weighting chosen.
5,000
Simulated Reweightings
88%
UAE & Iceland Top‑3 Hit Rate
34%
Portugal's Top‑3 Hit Rate at #4
10–53
Egypt's 90% Rank Band (Baseline #29)
Top 20 — rank band across 5,000 trials
Dot marks each country's baseline rank at the signed weights. The bar spans the 90% interval — where its rank lands across the middle 90% of simulated reweightings. Fill strength shows top‑3 hit rate: solid gold means it wins a top‑3 spot almost every time; a pale, wide bar means the position is directional, not locked in.
Solid — frequent top‑3
Moderate
Rarely top‑3
Baseline rank
Effectively tied at the top
UAE & Iceland
Both hold top‑10 in essentially every trial and top‑3 in ~88–89% of 5,000 simulated weightings — a stronger answer than the discrete check alone to "is UAE really #1." Puerto Rico trails close behind at 74.1%.
Real, but softer
Portugal · #4
90% band runs 1–8; top‑3 in only a third of trials. Its score leans hard on one pillar (Momentum, 93.74). Accurate framing: "a strong #4, more sensitive to methodology than the top 3" — not "the clear #4."
The bigger pattern
Momentum Risers
Egypt, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina all owe their baseline rank to one standout pillar, not a balanced profile — treat these mid-table positions as directional, not locked-in.
Least stable ranks inside the top 30
Sorted by widest 90% band. Each of these owes its baseline position largely to one pillar — usually Market Momentum — so a modest reweighting swings it by 20–40 ranks.